Weekly [12/15] Study
Hello SetStack : Choppy Waters at sea, no?
This week marks a Sequence Complete with a Full Rotation.
On 10/31 : We used 6925 to Auction into 6640, and later 6550.
On 11/24 : We used 6550 to Auction into 6925. Sequence Complete.
My previous release had set the tone for expectations of turbulence and Chop. As a result, Price has stagnated between our two long-term Pivots : 6805 — 6925. In other words, many accounts this week were unfortunately given the : axe_emoji :
What started as a Tremendous Rally off lows is now sluggishly taking its time; Forming a Distribution at Highs for about 2.5w. This is a significant development in the auction. First, we must now determine :
Is this a Consolidation before a continued move Higher?
Is this a Distribution before a stronger Retest Lower?'
It is important that at this point in time, you understand that NOBODY knows. The best thing we can do is prepare ourselves for an outcome, and utilize market generated information to REACT to the most-likely scenario.
15M Chart : Plan Overlay : Since Prior Release
![Weekly [12/08] Study](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!epxf!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F107605da-797a-4f58-bb0e-02780ce5c08a_800x898.png)
Price has been dominated by the affects of Balance. Mean Reversion trading this sequence has been the most profitable play, and as you know— not my cup of tea. I warned of this as the week prior showed little-to-no effort in calling for Higher, and even less in aiming for Lower. I suppose Holiday / FED / Earnings (like I said) has a lot of influence on the latest Price Action.
Existing Longs // New Longs against the Low : Prove Profitable into the end of the Week. Reaching SetStack Target II : 6925, but was unclear as it was traded in Settlement Period, and the only clue we have is that it was rejected the following session.
Newfound // Early Shorts against the High : show little success unless taken into 6900~ handle. At best, earns you the right to play a single session profitably, trading back into SetStack Target I : 6805, and is currently acting as Support.
Aside, I hope these weekly snippets paint a picture for you to use. I frame the entire Market in these fractal Sequences to frame my approach, and prepare how Price is expected to react, and to monitor how it develops.
Now, and as stated in prior releases : I am awaiting a break of Balance to determine this structures’ validity. Otherwise : No Change.
The Cost of Patience is seeing your P&L fall from Highs.
For me, it is often a cheaper price to pay than getting on and off a Good Boat.
![Weekly [12/01] Study](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbQF!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7569ad8f-253d-4225-ac8d-0e5a7845d7e4_1454x1376.jpeg)
6880 / 6925 : Their Only Hope.
Buyers have merely secured Balance, just a bit sharper inside a short week. As long as 6640 remains intact : All eyes point Northbound as we await Holiday Flows to tell the tale. Santa and Squeeze, both are yet to be seen. I await their participation.
This Release contains the idea of having a Target + Respect of Seller : 6925.
The difficulty in understanding this Auction comes in the form of Friday activating the Sell and also ending the week. There is also a caveat in which Price was Closed inside Balance, rather than Outside. Perhaps the Sell-Off /could/ have continued, giving us a stronger downside bias but the Closing Flows have stated otherwise, crafting general direction : unknown.
Leaving us with the…
Auction at Hand — Break of Balance
This is a Weekly Composite : Market Profile Chart
Below this, we’ve previously focused on 6640 to determine upside Bias.
Now, after spending a period of Time within this Area, Value is Shifting.
