Weekly [12/01] Study
Hello SetStack : Did you hit my Parlay?
I went into the week Closing out my Swing Shorts : 6925 / 6850 > 6550.
I didn’t stop there : I Closed Short and Opened Longs : 6550~
I opened more longs above 6640~ : and more longs above 6710~
Turkey Day closes ES above 6850. Where it all began. Parlay OP.
At the beginning of SetSell : 6925 : I was seeking a GOOD Rotation Lower + Spicy Shake-Out Flush. That’s exactly what we got no?
Parlay Time : Longer Sustained Squeeze into Year End!
It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!
![Weekly [11/24] Study](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L76S!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5f9b811-496a-4c42-a351-a53149945292_1573x1296.png)
My Previous RTH Plan for navigating this auction consisted of the following:
Support at 6550
Pivot at 6640 + 6710
Target of : 6805
On Paper : An entry from Support to Pivot : +100p
On Paper : An entry from Support to Target : +250p
These are excellent trades in my opinion, but there’s a way to make them even better. Only achieved by doing the hardest thing that’s asked of you : Adding to Winners.
We started this sequence together. With the exact same information.
How did we end up with such drastic differences in execution?
On Set : An Entry from Support 6550
On Set : An Add at 6640 / 6710 / 6800
On Set : First Trim : A Trim at 6850
This would realize a gain of : +300 / +200 / +150p / +50p
— Not even accounting for the numerous $SPX 0DE + Weeklies added to the mix!
Total Futures Gain with Adds : +700p~
Total Futures Gain being Scared : +100 to +250p~ at best.
This is the Art of Pyramiding.
This is a Simple 30M Chart : Friday — Friday : RTH Plan Overlay
I will never be one to say “I know exactly what the market is going to do.” that is a gamblers expression. Instead, I will be extremely prepared to react to what the market is doing. This is a Traders’ approach.
I can push this idea to the backburner if Big Buyers show their hands early in the week and spike above 6700; It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!
On Paper : The Market Sharply Reversed into our Extreme Support : 6550. This rallies Price into Our Pivot (+100p Higher) : 6640 and begins the move up the Chart.
I was extremely prepared for this scenario, allowing for my near-perfect execution.
My next phase of preparation was understanding both
What type of Auction are we in?
What is my Plan in the case of X/Y?
Personally, my Bear appetite has been extremely satiated.
There may be a few opportunities at Higher Prices for some surprise Rotations, but that’s all I expect to come from it.
Context Clues > ALL Intraday Indicators
With Extreme Support holding Lows heroically, the only answer is a Bullish Auction. The type of which, would be answered by its reaction Higher. I prepared your outlook for this at Pivot. I had expected a few bad eggs to appear, I held brave expecting them to be Rotations, and NOT Sell-Offs. I was correct again.
On Paper : Our Pivot 6640 : Gets reclaimed by Buyers, opening doors to a Squeeze. Sell-Offs quickly turned into Rotations : And the Market resumes its natural Trend. Quickly arriving now at 6710 : The Minor Pivot kicks in and sparks the Squeeze another +100p Higher : Into our First Target : 6805. Congratulations.
A Young Trader will hold onto Losers, and quickly run away from Profits.
With SetStack : I share my vision of the Auction / of the Market, and help prepare all types of Traders to get from one end to the other, in one piece.
Some Auctions I can extract the absolute most of a move.
Some Auctions I barely get out alive.
At the end of the Day : It’s about building a repeatable process / systems that keep your winners outsized to your losers. That’s it.
Auction at Hand — Spicy Shakeout
Alternatively : Instead of Infinite lift, a good rotation lower and a spicy shake-out flush can actually be welcomed for a longer sustained squeeze into end of year.
I bring to the surface, pending thoughts I had at the Highs of 6925. This was the crux in understanding both A) There will be a “Sell-Off” from Highs, B) This weakness in the Market will not continue in front of the Strength this market has displayed YTD.
Market Bulls can sleep well knowing I’ve closed by Bear Eyes.
This is a Weekly Composite : Market Profile Chart
