Weekly [11/24] Study

Hello SetStack : TWO Large moves in a week?! Things sure got extra spicy!

I went into this week thinking we would take out the Weekly Lows.
We ended up doing so not once, but TWICE!

1. Headlines saved the Lows : We broke those early in the week to SetStack TP : 6640

2. NVDA Earnings saved the Lows next : We broke those too : Support : 6550

But for now, I am strongly favoring Downside attempts for eventual Low Breaks.

Weekly [11/17] Study

Jensen sure threw a wrench into my plans but staying tied to our Structure, it was clear guidance once our Seller continued their assault.

“Bothered but not Bullish” has become a constant echo this sequence. It has given me the mindset required to deal with fluctuations in Price, and still execute alongside our (very) Strong Seller once the time is right.

This session 11/20 before the sell-off is no different, it was a Sellers Auction after all!

---

Weekly [10/31] Study

On the shorter timeframe,
I would expect persistent downside attempts below 6925.
Sellers’ Goals should be to Auction into Orderflow Pivot 6640,

This is my primary approach.

This is a Weekly View of our Conquest thus far.

Grabbing a snippet from an earlier [10/31] Release, Sellers’ Goals have been met.

Sellers stake their flag at Highs and begin turning the boat. After a few weeks of gaining traction lower, They Flush into Fresh Lows and secure a Close below Weekly Lows. I’ve been noticing a lot of changing bias this week. Becomes a dangerous plot for those untrained in Orderflow.

For at the top of the month I called for this exact sequence; It was deemed as Balance!

However, more on that later, below.

---

Auction at Hand

This week has been heavily influenced by NVDA ER. The anticipation had provided interim Support into the initial break of Weekly Lows, then offered a Sharp Spike higher into Weekly Highs.

The unfortunate downfall for Buyers at this point in time was failing to Auction above our 6790 - 6805 SetStack Pivot. This is why preparation matters the most. As one of the (EXTREMELY) few that sold this rip : I wouldn’t be able to do without it!

Sellers take the reigns with force…. Some may even consider this ‘Climactic’ ;)

A Very Sharp Sell-Off produces an Intraday Loss of -230p
I am sure it is just a coincidence we mark Lows into Extreme Support : 6550.

Buyers Close the Week above the poked Lows and up the prior day tape that initially held them down. Not a clear indication of the week ahead, but a few hard-earned points certainly side with Buyers after this recovery!

---

Buyers want 7000!

From April Lows to October Highs : ES has marched +40%
Yet a Pullback from ATH of -5% : has emotions running so hot.

I’ve seen this story play out before.
Market Bulls can sleep well knowing I’ve closed my Bear Eyes.

Buyers want to hold onto ES : 6550 : Extreme Support;
Early Longs capitalize on this opportunity and launch an early +100p Rally.

At the moment I can actually see a short term sequence developing in which Sellers take back this Pivot and poke lower again. Assuming Buyer Pockets are ready, the Loss » Reclaim of 6550 is a more tangible Rally I can -fully- get behind.

I can push this idea to the backburner if Big Buyers show their hands early in the week and spike above 6700; It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!

I will be referencing Strong Pivots we’ve recently conquered from the downside expecting Buyers to use them as a Launch Pad for extreme upside.

Alternatively : Instead of Infinite lift, a good rotation lower and a spicy shake-out flush can actually be welcomed for a longer sustained squeeze into end of year.

At the beginning of SetSell : 6925 : I was seeking exactly what this Month had to offer. A GOOD Rotation Lower + Spicy Shake-Out Flush. That’s exactly what we got no?

Parlay Time : Longer Sustained Squeeze into Year End!

---

Sellers’ eyes are often bigger than their bite.

If I may be so brazen : This has been a very Fair and Successful Bear Conquest.
Quite honestly one of the most successful I’ve yet to participate (happily) in!

Weekly [11/10] Study

A few sessions showing Distribution would inspire further selling into Fresh Lows. Real Sellers won’t play with their Food. It only takes one session for them to appear.

As quick as they come, the quicker they exit!

Sellers can afford to take a breather but must work in coordination against an established Pivot Point and show force into New Lows to prevent the Market from snapping back on them. This would require force below Current Support 6550 and bleed into the Market for maybe ~100p lower : undetermined 64XX.

Personally, my Bear appetite has been extremely satiated.
There may be a few opportunities at Higher Prices for some surprise Rotations, but that’s all I expect to come from it.

A Plan on those Below!