Weekly [05/13] Study

The previous release was open to the opportunity for a Seller to step into to the Auction, but with failure to achieve prices below ES 5550, it was clear the tides of control were changing, particularly under Mr. Orange headlines.

Weekly [05/01] Study

If Buying persists, I simply do not want to assume anything is ‘too high’;
Sellers will have a higher chance of success below 5550;

Sell Sequence began with strong two-way trade fighting for control over R1 : 5690. This Seller completed multiple trips into the previous Auction, but was never able to successfully break into it.

Sellers’ first Close below Pivot achieves a Gap (70p~) Down, but Buyers step in against Previous Resistance, now flipping to Support. RS Flip. This would be a capable Clue but within a difficult environment to play correctly.

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Sellers gain confidence below R1 : 5690 and achieve a Bearish Close, but was suddenly wiped clear with another Trump Tweet, wiping the Book of both sides but at the same time achieving a Perfect Pivot Rejection to stop the Rally in its tracks.

This is now the second time a Seller has shown intention against SetStack R1, and achieves a rejection for another 100p~ lower. With the benefit of Hindsight, this was the controlling aspect of “Failing to break into the previous distribution lower” with a perfect pivot of an old SetScalp entry at 5595. Again, failing to achieve 5550 and lower.

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With this change of tape in mind, fast forward a few RTH sessions later, I was able to flip my bias and find Longs assuming the presence of a Stronger Buyer in play. Here’s how it unfolded.

Sometimes, SetStack feels like a Cheat Code, this was one of those times. My first Long this entire Auction ends up fulfilling the entire Sequence overnight. I’ll never be one to say “I knew this would happen”, because that’s just false. But it certainly printed my pockets and I’m not one to complain.