Weekly [03/05] Study

My last sequence left off with eyes on a Bid above ES 6000.
My last sequence left off with eyes on an Offer below ES 6000.
Below is an Hourly RTH Candlestick chart 02/27 - 03/04 (four sessions).

Weekly [02/26] Study

My Plan was very simple : Long above 6000, Short below 6000 + Especially 5940.

Contextually :

1. 02/27 : HOD : 6005 : Bearish
   Rejection of Pivot early in the session leads to a bearish outlook.
   This leads to a bounce off 5940 [Short Target] but ultimately fails and flushes.

2. 02/28 + 03/03 : EOD Rally : Bullish Spike
   Ultimately a trap, most importantly fails to control Pivot : 6000 : Fails
   Failing 6000 leads to 5940 [Short Target] + 5825 [Short Target II / LOD]

3. 03/04 : IB High : 5825 : Sell Off + Buyer
   Pivot Controlled and Flushed. Lower Prices attracted a Larger Buyer.
   This Buyer controls the auction and bids above 5825 Pivot, from below.

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Market placing an HOD against a SetStack Pivot; Traditionally results in Trend; However a real-time update provided the context needed to flip the switch.

ES : 5745 - 5755 : Provided a Bid only possible by larger timeframe participants.
This bid provided enough courage for me to flip the bias and join the Buyers.

By doing so : this lifted the Market above Pivot : 5825 and finding rejection against Thuraday Close : 5875.

A clear auction would have kept the Close above 5825, but with this end of day offer to Drill Price below the Pivot, this calls for ‘maximum levels’ of defensive management.

First, you must understand the two sequences that occured.

03/04 RTH :

1. Offered Pivot, but failed to Initiate Lower

2. Poked above Pivot, but failed to Close Above

Unfortunately, this weeks’ auction places us between two larger timeframe participants. Fortunately, these participants should fold quickly if invalidated.