[002] Still Higher but Stuck

Today, the market finds itself attached to this newly positioned NQ 15360. By today’s IB Close, it was shaping up to be a balance session. Let’s dig in to the why.

Initial Balance (IB) is a reference to the first hour of trade. Those who study Market Profile understand that the activity displayed here can often determine the day type.

I released the plan that I wanted to overall be bullish above 15230 as we have some aggressive structure below that buyers want to keep out of sellers’ reach. Below, I will post The Plan’s areas to break. Then below, a view of RTH activity.

In the chart above, The Open had an opportunity to strike for highs and begin continuation, However the responding sellers were able to keep Price down. This liquidated but lost interest and now stuck within a range. Refer to Intraday Pivot Low.

As the market began to stall after trying the Highs as well as now the Lows; Ideas of Balance or a “Normal Day” type were certainly present. This does not mean that the current lows do not break. This does not mean that the current highs do not break. It simply means that the rules of returning back to mean has higher chances of working.

Viewing this Split-Market Profile (TPO) view, we can see the market trading within their respected distributions, as well as some sharp nuances surrounding the Intraday Pivots I shared. These were not levels I planned to interact with, but they became levels based off the intraday activity displayed.

Intraday Event

The market lost its Support at 15345 and began to liquidate to the downside.

With the failure to take the Pivot High, weak longs have their stops ran, but what comes next was a surprise and the final clue to solve the session.

The acceleration came to a halt.

Consider our Plans’ range. I called for a structural break, but the session could barely leave its Open, now 3 hours into the session. The liquidation is fine but if it’s going to be this sharp relative to the session, it better come with some ammo.

By the print of the next uptick I had ideas of buying the dip for at least a return to IB.

1. Our range break never came to fruition — No TimeFrame Participants

2. All whiffs of initiation, fizzled — No TimeFrame Participants

3. The most accurate, the tape — Market Buy : 15300 / 4378

Remembering how Balance sessions act, reversion to the mean is expected. If/Once arrived, Auction Market Theory can suggest to test another Players’ reference. Let’s take a look at what the Footprint can reveal about this Low.

Contextual Exhaustion

Understanding that penetrating further would require some serious activity. This offer that snaps intraday lows (and likely traps late sellers) is getting exhausted. Into these NQ lows of 15290 and up, we have several ticks of (numberx0), and an unwind.

This to the Footprint (Obvious Future Article SoonTM) indicates seller exhaustion or sell imbalance. Based off the ideas of balance, I side with a stop run of long inventory, flush and reverse; Respecting Balance.

This is exhaustion / sell imbalance. Context reveals more-likely positioning.

Seeing the activity spike into the lows. Buyers begin to reload the bid. Long participants of the market are simply responding to falling Prices. The nuance in this interaction however, and the last piece of context I needed to play was — The lift of initiation that took place above the local reference.

The market recovered sealing trapped inventory below. Price is able to access the previous auction above. Unchanged thoughts until New Players step in.