April Flows initiate an incredible Bottoming Sequence from 6350 and now finds itself +1000p Higher into 7450. Movement of this kind is incredible on its own, but what really solidifies this as a Historical Recovery is the fact it managed to accomplish this feat in just thirty (30) trading days! Incredible.

This market went through a series of events. Simplified and Highlighted Above.

1. Eternal Chop : Lasting Range-Bound Market

   1. Price Primarily traded in a Rotational manner.

   2. Respected Relative Highs and Lows, causing repeated Auctions.

2. Awaited Poke Below : Break of Structure / Exploration

   1. Price Attempted to Initiate Lower.

   2. Low Break with Retest and down move.

   3. Low Recovery with Initiation

3. Can’t Break Lows : Go Check Highs

   1. Price couldn’t Trade Lower

   2. Chasing Sellers must Buy to Cover their losses.

   3. Patient Buyers may decide to now Buy, equipped with a Low Reference.

4. Accelerated Auctions : Sharp and Unforgiving Price Action

   1. Series of Unfavourable Prices.

   2. Sellers can’t make Progress.

   3. Buyers must Buy High.

Straight to the Point : High Level Thoughts
Recent Weekend Headlines was caused by a Valid Buyer

Prior release mentions the appropriate Buyer into the formed Lows. This idea may have been further supported by the FED and their decision to print more dollars.

A common phrase, “Don’t fight the FED.” comes to mind.

With a Reference Low, an Influx of Buying, and a Point of Interest now strongly secured by Buyers; This became a recipe for Outrageous Buying.

With Timestamps, I’ve provided direction + reference + 0DE Execution for :

1. The eventual Flush from 6805

2. The Bottom set for Relief into 6300

3. The Printing with FED at 6400

4. The OnlyLongs at 6800

5. The Crescendo 5X Size into All Time Highs at 7160

I reference this as now at 7400, I don’t know, n’or really care what the Market does. I’ve maintained clear direction for the entirety of the sequence above. For now, I take a backseat. Regardless, these are my concise thoughts on the Auction at Hand.

Respect Price.

Things may begin to get Trappy.

Re-framing the Auction, the Market spent a long time in balance.
Then it tried to Break Lower but only temporarily successful.

The market returned to balance and was declared unfair on its arrival.
It was allowed to freely travel to the other end of the Auction to break.

The recent activity has now done the same amount of exploring above balance.
This may be the Crux of the entire Auction.

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My Last release was involved in the continued Balancing Act the Market had posted at the Highs; The Dreaded 6800 - 7100 : Eternal Chop. The market has since then Flushed from Pivots after some prolonged time and reached a contextual checkpoint.

This slow start to 2026 is in my opinion, an anomaly.
Updates and Pivots were not needed here. Success in this Auction required the opposite. A rather large dose of Patience as One waits for at least the break of range.

Pivot : 6910
Shorts to : 6805 / 6550

I am preemptively siding with Sellers below the Pivot : 6910.
Sellers have unlocked the ability to move freely inside Higher Price.

I would also look to aggressively add to the Sell on a breakdown below 6805;

Daily ESM : January - March
Adjusted for Rollover, this would act as my Points of Interest : Continued.

My thoughts on this Auction had turned Bearish with the lack of Initiation into All Time Highs. The direction was eventually correct, but as mentioned, this is the first time in 50+ Years the SPX endured such a unique start of the Year. My timing could have been better.

Despite catching the downside Flush from Highs, with Adds even; The markets’ resilience is now being put on display with Weekend Headlines providing buyers with huge upside relief.

Straight to the Point : High Level Thoughts

• The Range at YTD Highs is a Valid Auction

• Price Rejected this Valid Auction

• Price has Flushed in respect

• Recent Weekend Headlines was caused by a Valid Buyer

• Despite expecting Rallies, the Lows are NOT yet in.

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Taking a look at a Daily ES Chart, we can see our Extreme Support still remains intact, that has never been in question. The issue on the other-hand is that the Auction has never been able to initiate beyond 7000 / 7040, Our Points of Interest.

SetStack releases are not dependent on Time. That defeats the purpose of releasing around key opportunities. The Market can absolutely spend another 2 weeks in balance and the long sequence can still be correct.

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System is undergoing seasonal calibration and showing its importance as this auction rotates yet ano…

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In the past I’ve treated this period of time as “Initial Balance for the Year.” This being the first two weeks of January. During which you can expect a combination of residual trend, seasonal drift, and of course — newly generated information. The concept of waiting for more structure to work with can avoid many early pitfalls.

Rising tensions on the Index provide an earlier prompt, but not necessarily quick to take action. The opportunity to act was before. The auction at hand is telling me it is better now to wait. Afterall, my release that called for Axes put a halt to Our Rally. Fast forward a month in advance, we’re trading the same Price.

SetStack releases are not dependent on Time. That defeats the purpose of releasing around key opportunities. The Market can absolutely spend another 2 weeks in balance and the long sequence can still be correct.

Aside from the liquidation event from Rollover, the market has been quiet. The exception being this holidays’ biggest headline — Precious Metals.

Gold, Silver and Platinum have made remarkable moves. This will certainly be worth monitoring as Q1 picks up. A relationship between Indicies has not yet been seen. In fact, a lack of reaction is most likely being seen in terms of Price movement. This release is a forewarning of expected change. — More on this below.

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This week marks a Sequence Complete with a Full Rotation.
On 10/31 : We used 6925 to Auction into 6640, and later 6550.
On 11/24 : We used 6550 to Auction into 6925. Sequence Complete.

My previous release had set the tone for expectations of turbulence and Chop. As a result, Price has stagnated between our two long-term Pivots : 6805 — 6925. In other words, many accounts this week were unfortunately given the : axe_emoji :

What started as a Tremendous Rally off lows is now sluggishly taking its time; Forming a Distribution at Highs for about 2.5w. This is a significant development in the auction. First, we must now determine :

1. Is this a Consolidation before a continued move Higher?

2. Is this a Distribution before a stronger Retest Lower?'

It is important that at this point in time, you understand that NOBODY knows. The best thing we can do is prepare ourselves for an outcome, and utilize market generated information to REACT to the most-likely scenario.

15M Chart : Plan Overlay : Since Prior Release

Price has been dominated by the affects of Balance. Mean Reversion trading this sequence has been the most profitable play, and as you know— not my cup of tea. I warned of this as the week prior showed little-to-no effort in calling for Higher, and even less in aiming for Lower. I suppose Holiday / FED / Earnings (like I said) has a lot of influence on the latest Price Action.

Existing Longs // New Longs against the Low : Prove Profitable into the end of the Week. Reaching SetStack Target II : 6925, but was unclear as it was traded in Settlement Period, and the only clue we have is that it was rejected the following session.

Newfound // Early Shorts against the High : show little success unless taken into 6900~ handle. At best, earns you the right to play a single session profitably, trading back into SetStack Target I : 6805, and is currently acting as Support.

Aside, I hope these weekly snippets paint a picture for you to use. I frame the entire Market in these fractal Sequences to frame my approach, and prepare how Price is expected to react, and to monitor how it develops.

Now, and as stated in prior releases : I am awaiting a break of Balance to determine this structures’ validity. Otherwise : No Change.

The Cost of Patience is seeing your P&L fall from Highs.
For me, it is often a cheaper price to pay than getting on and off a Good Boat.

6880 / 6925 : Their Only Hope.

Buyers have merely secured Balance, just a bit sharper inside a short week. As long as 6640 remains intact : All eyes point Northbound as we await Holiday Flows to tell the tale. Santa and Squeeze, both are yet to be seen. I await their participation.

This Release contains the idea of having a Target + Respect of Seller : 6925.

The difficulty in understanding this Auction comes in the form of Friday activating the Sell and also ending the week. There is also a caveat in which Price was Closed inside Balance, rather than Outside. Perhaps the Sell-Off /could/ have continued, giving us a stronger downside bias but the Closing Flows have stated otherwise, crafting general direction : unknown.

Leaving us with the…

Auction at Hand — Break of Balance

This is a Weekly Composite : Market Profile Chart
Below this, we’ve previously focused on 6640 to determine upside Bias.

Now, after spending a period of Time within this Area, Value is Shifting.

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We are now at a point in the Auction where we’ll see a variance in perspective. Those that continue to ride my wave are swimming safely in profits. Those that got off my boat (early) are surely going to find themselves in some dangerous waters.

This week ahead has a number of Headlines in the Mix : Data / Fed / Earnings. all coming in front of a Sharp Sell // Sharper Rally // Nearby Psychological Highs.

: axe_emoji :

Parlay Time : Longer Sustained Squeeze into Year End!
It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!

I’ve thrown many lifeboats this sequence. Too many in fact. I am now expecting this week to be the most punishing for those that didn’t take advantage of when the times were easy. Now entering the fourth week of Price being influenced by Extreme Support. I am continuing my march Higher and I don’t really have a way to get more on board from here! Not without being subjectively upside biased that is…

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I went into the week Closing out my Swing Shorts : 6925 / 6850 > 6550.
I didn’t stop there : I Closed Short and Opened Longs : 6550~
I opened more longs above 6640~ : and more longs above 6710~

Turkey Day closes ES above 6850. Where it all began. Parlay OP.

At the beginning of SetSell : 6925 : I was seeking a GOOD Rotation Lower + Spicy Shake-Out Flush. That’s exactly what we got no?

Parlay Time : Longer Sustained Squeeze into Year End!
It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!

My Previous RTH Plan for navigating this auction consisted of the following:

• Support at 6550

• Pivot at 6640 + 6710

• Target of : 6805

On Paper : An entry from Support to Pivot : +100p
On Paper : An entry from Support to Target : +250p

These are excellent trades in my opinion, but there’s a way to make them even better. Only achieved by doing the hardest thing that’s asked of you : Adding to Winners.

We started this sequence together. With the exact same information.
How did we end up with such drastic differences in execution?

On Set : An Entry from Support 6550
On Set : An Add at 6640 / 6710 / 6800
On Set : First Trim : A Trim at 6850

This would realize a gain of : +300 / +200 / +150p / +50p
— Not even accounting for the numerous $SPX 0DE + Weeklies added to the mix!

Total Futures Gain with Adds : +700p~
Total Futures Gain being Scared : +100 to +250p~ at best.

This is the Art of Pyramiding.

This is a Simple 30M Chart : Friday — Friday : RTH Plan Overlay

I will never be one to say “I know exactly what the market is going to do.” that is a gamblers expression. Instead, I will be extremely prepared to react to what the market is doing. This is a Traders’ approach.

I can push this idea to the backburner if Big Buyers show their hands early in the week and spike above 6700; It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!

On Paper : The Market Sharply Reversed into our Extreme Support : 6550. This rallies Price into Our Pivot (+100p Higher) : 6640 and begins the move up the Chart.

I was extremely prepared for this scenario, allowing for my near-perfect execution.

My next phase of preparation was understanding both

1. What type of Auction are we in?

2. What is my Plan in the case of X/Y?

Personally, my Bear appetite has been extremely satiated.
There may be a few opportunities at Higher Prices for some surprise Rotations, but that’s all I expect to come from it.

Context Clues > ALL Intraday Indicators

With Extreme Support holding Lows heroically, the only answer is a Bullish Auction. The type of which, would be answered by its reaction Higher. I prepared your outlook for this at Pivot. I had expected a few bad eggs to appear, I held brave expecting them to be Rotations, and NOT Sell-Offs. I was correct again.

On Paper : Our Pivot 6640 : Gets reclaimed by Buyers, opening doors to a Squeeze. Sell-Offs quickly turned into Rotations : And the Market resumes its natural Trend. Quickly arriving now at 6710 : The Minor Pivot kicks in and sparks the Squeeze another +100p Higher : Into our First Target : 6805. Congratulations.

A Young Trader will hold onto Losers, and quickly run away from Profits.

With SetStack : I share my vision of the Auction / of the Market, and help prepare all types of Traders to get from one end to the other, in one piece.

Some Auctions I can extract the absolute most of a move.
Some Auctions I barely get out alive.

At the end of the Day : It’s about building a repeatable process / systems that keep your winners outsized to your losers. That’s it.

Auction at Hand — Spicy Shakeout

Alternatively : Instead of Infinite lift, a good rotation lower and a spicy shake-out flush can actually be welcomed for a longer sustained squeeze into end of year.

I bring to the surface, pending thoughts I had at the Highs of 6925. This was the crux in understanding both A) There will be a “Sell-Off” from Highs, B) This weakness in the Market will not continue in front of the Strength this market has displayed YTD.

Market Bulls can sleep well knowing I’ve closed by Bear Eyes.

This is a Weekly Composite : Market Profile Chart

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I went into this week thinking we would take out the Weekly Lows.
We ended up doing so not once, but TWICE!

1. Headlines saved the Lows : We broke those early in the week to SetStack TP : 6640

2. NVDA Earnings saved the Lows next : We broke those too : Support : 6550

But for now, I am strongly favoring Downside attempts for eventual Low Breaks.

Jensen sure threw a wrench into my plans but staying tied to our Structure, it was clear guidance once our Seller continued their assault.

“Bothered but not Bullish” has become a constant echo this sequence. It has given me the mindset required to deal with fluctuations in Price, and still execute alongside our (very) Strong Seller once the time is right.

This session 11/20 before the sell-off is no different, it was a Sellers Auction after all!

On the shorter timeframe,
I would expect persistent downside attempts below 6925.
Sellers’ Goals should be to Auction into Orderflow Pivot 6640,

This is my primary approach.

This is a Weekly View of our Conquest thus far.

Grabbing a snippet from an earlier [10/31] Release, Sellers’ Goals have been met.

Sellers stake their flag at Highs and begin turning the boat. After a few weeks of gaining traction lower, They Flush into Fresh Lows and secure a Close below Weekly Lows. I’ve been noticing a lot of changing bias this week. Becomes a dangerous plot for those untrained in Orderflow.

For at the top of the month I called for this exact sequence; It was deemed as Balance!

However, more on that later, below.

Auction at Hand

This week has been heavily influenced by NVDA ER. The anticipation had provided interim Support into the initial break of Weekly Lows, then offered a Sharp Spike higher into Weekly Highs.

The unfortunate downfall for Buyers at this point in time was failing to Auction above our 6790 - 6805 SetStack Pivot. This is why preparation matters the most. As one of the (EXTREMELY) few that sold this rip : I wouldn’t be able to do without it!

Sellers take the reigns with force…. Some may even consider this ‘Climactic’ ;)

A Very Sharp Sell-Off produces an Intraday Loss of -230p
I am sure it is just a coincidence we mark Lows into Extreme Support : 6550.

Buyers Close the Week above the poked Lows and up the prior day tape that initially held them down. Not a clear indication of the week ahead, but a few hard-earned points certainly side with Buyers after this recovery!

Buyers want 7000!

From April Lows to October Highs : ES has marched +40%
Yet a Pullback from ATH of -5% : has emotions running so hot.

I’ve seen this story play out before.
Market Bulls can sleep well knowing I’ve closed my Bear Eyes.

Buyers want to hold onto ES : 6550 : Extreme Support;
Early Longs capitalize on this opportunity and launch an early +100p Rally.

At the moment I can actually see a short term sequence developing in which Sellers take back this Pivot and poke lower again. Assuming Buyer Pockets are ready, the Loss » Reclaim of 6550 is a more tangible Rally I can -fully- get behind.

I can push this idea to the backburner if Big Buyers show their hands early in the week and spike above 6700; It would be off to the races as : 6800, 6900, 7000 come next!

I will be referencing Strong Pivots we’ve recently conquered from the downside expecting Buyers to use them as a Launch Pad for extreme upside.

Alternatively : Instead of Infinite lift, a good rotation lower and a spicy shake-out flush can actually be welcomed for a longer sustained squeeze into end of year.

At the beginning of SetSell : 6925 : I was seeking exactly what this Month had to offer. A GOOD Rotation Lower + Spicy Shake-Out Flush. That’s exactly what we got no?

Parlay Time : Longer Sustained Squeeze into Year End!

Sellers’ eyes are often bigger than their bite.

If I may be so brazen : This has been a very Fair and Successful Bear Conquest.
Quite honestly one of the most successful I’ve yet to participate (happily) in!

A few sessions showing Distribution would inspire further selling into Fresh Lows. Real Sellers won’t play with their Food. It only takes one session for them to appear.

As quick as they come, the quicker they exit!

Sellers can afford to take a breather but must work in coordination against an established Pivot Point and show force into New Lows to prevent the Market from snapping back on them. This would require force below Current Support 6550 and bleed into the Market for maybe ~100p lower : undetermined 64XX.

Personally, my Bear appetite has been extremely satiated.
There may be a few opportunities at Higher Prices for some surprise Rotations, but that’s all I expect to come from it.

A Plan on those Below!

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1. Predominant Balance between 6805 - 6850

2. Head-Fake with a Spike above 6850 but below 6900

3. Met with a Final Flush into 6700.

What Actually Happened : What Was Expected ; There was no difference!
$ES from release : Trades 6805 → 6850 → 6700 : Balance and Flush
$NQ from release : Trades 25500→ 25800 → 24600 : Balance and Flush

I am expecting a rotational cadence predominantly influenced by 6805 / 6850.
Dips into 6700 may temporarily see active buying but ultimately considered as small fish unless above 6900+.

As shared, I expected Sellers to be capable of defending their auction.

There was even a glorious note early in the week building up to the Climax Short.
There was even a glorious note the day of the Climax Short, all according to plan!

Auction at Hand

This week has been dealing with Government Shutdown Headlines and in return we had a rotational cadence with a Flush into the end of the Week. The unique part to this sequence was seen when Friday Session Gaps Down below 6700.

Dips into 6700 may temporarily see active buying but ultimately considered as small fish unless

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Hello SetStack : How about them Warning Shots.
ES from release : Trades 6925 → 6640* : -300p Rejection from Highs!
NQ from release : Trades 26250 → 24700 : -1600p Rejection from Highs!

Last Weeks’ Release had focused in on a Short Term shift in the Auction.
Orderflow at Highs had suggested a Seller may be attracted to Price;

Thus calling for Persistent Downside attempts below 6925.
For a move into Orderflow Pivot 6640.

As shared, I am expecting this sequence to respect Higher Structure Balance.
There are only a few Key Levels this week to decide if Balance decides to Break.
Let’s dive right in.

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Straight to the Point, this is not a doom-signal, but it is at least a good Warning Shot.

Previous Release mentioned Support from the Poor Low. Price since then has Rallied into All Time Highs, falling just a few points shy from Sequence TP II. Price has been one-way heavy for some time now. I’m taking the lack of upside exploration into headlines as Caution Sign.

Continuing this idea, buyers will have an opportunity for Sharp Initiation into SetStack TP II : 6980. This entire sequence may be a form of Accumulation.

Auction at Hand

This Week has been Balancing above a Weekly Gap.

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A …

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Sellers gain Strength Selling from the Highs of 6805 : This is the current Auction Resistance. Participants are still working through the Friday Flush structure. As an enjoyer of Sell Sided Flow Days, I will be siding with them below our Resistance as I would expect continued attempts to break the lows of 6600.

Buyers form a Double Bottom against the ES : 6600.
Auction Market Theory would mark this as a Poor Low, to which I agree.
My plans’ best case scenario would to see a Break and Close below this reference to allow other participants to join a conquest Lower.

TSLA : Personally I see little opportunity in Single Names for now. This one in particular is likely stuck auctioning 420 vs 440. This state is not interesting to me, but I would expect a Daily Close Above or Below to really turn some weeklies into winners.

Below 420 : I will chase downside targets to the tune of 360.
This will be my primary stance until further notice.

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My Previous Plan called for a Long Target II of 6710.
This Price has been contested rather aggressively over the last two weeks.

In recent Activity, I had found the climactic Short > Reverse Long > Ini…

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My previous plan left off fighting for control at 6240 to spark a rally to ATH;
The Rally had started and its initial lift had reached as high as 6450.
This would become the next ATH Reference for Higher.

Very Bull : For (unfortunately) quite a while. SetU.

My analysis called for Higher and staying Higher.
The reality of its movements actually came back down to retest 6240 again,
Which then ultimately led the move for further ATH, above 6450.

6240 : Became the base of a +200p move.
6240 : Became the base of the next +250p move.
6240 : Remains to be the Low, and trading nearly +300p Higher.

I personally established many longs against our Pivots, whilst adding up Higher.
Buying High and Selling Higher has been a constant theme all year.
Those asking for more updates, simply aren’t patient enough to let the winners win.

The Auction at hand would be summarized into these Sequences

1. Support Established → Initiate All Time Highs

2. Retest Support → Initiate All Time Highs

3. Gap Fill Higher Low → Initiate All Time Highs

Three consecutive pushes have been met with Higher ATH.
Typically this would be seen as Bullish Development;
However this latest attempt Higher should be seen differently.

It’s unclear to me how much of an impact NVDA Earnings played in this role, but the Market was unable to initiate in either direction during this event. With this now out of the way, the market should be able to move more freely as positioning begins to get re-established into the Short Week.

Buyers have been able to lift Price Higher but haven’t been able to Initiate.
Sellers have been gaining traction at favourable location, forming Distributions above.

With a rejection from the Highs of 6500~ after a third attempt Higher, this may allow Sellers to gather the courage needed to revisit structure below.

There are two scenarios I am watching that will ultimately determine how I approach September + Rollover.

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Buyers had walked the Market up rather confidently gaining a few Days’ worth of inventory at our Pivot. Sellers attempted to refute this move with a Gap Up and Sell but failed to retake 6240 where SetFeed reversed shorts and played Longs.

As of late, Sellers have been controlling Price at Higher Grounds but it’s only a matter of time until they unwind and Trade Higher.

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Rollover and Key Headlines changed the attitude of this Market. I had previously welcomed higher Prices with the context of “Nothing is too High.”

Context, or at least the tape beneath has newly invited players.

The upside march to ATH was called for, Weeks later we’re higher but now with new players in the arena. The Auction at hand has now squeezed local Sellers and is seeking Higher Prices. Should Sellers be attracted here, it will secure a Close below 6145 and retest some structure lower.

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SetU has been launched, as promised the Stack gets dibs on the first seats. See Below.

The previous release maintained a Bullish outlook with not just one swing entry, but a second layer added Higher, with Pivot. This saw the Highs+ of Century : 6000 allowing for a New Sequence to begin.

ES : 5760 and later, ES : 5870 to then trade into ES : 6000 for my Highest Trim of +230p!

I had originally planned on Closing this position with a TIME Target in mind, however the infamous Trump / Elon breakup forced my hand abruptly.

My Starting Swing rapidly approached 6000 but this was only achieved in the night. It required a retest of our [05/13] Pivot, with some minor turbulence but ended up successfully trading above this handle within RTH.

This Century number was also mentioned in the previous release and left behind some clues for rotational trade, finally opening the doors for some genuine two-way trade. I left a breadcrumb for the Initiative mentioning a Buyer TP. I would normally display this with detail but I’ll save that for Class time.

Hint : I am not surprised TSLA fell so sharply after this positioning was shown.

6000~ ends up splashing above local highs with a sharp decline with headlines.
It was also bought up just as quickly as the Market recovers and trades even higher once again. This leaves us with a unique current state of the auction.

For the first time in months, I am entirely FLAT. A) I have more important things to tend to, but also B) The buyer I have been chasing has been awfully muted this sequence. This isn’t a classic SetBear, but rather likely a SetCaution. Plan also below.

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